Maximum entropy-based bioclimatic models predict areas of current and future suitable habitat for Armillaria species in western Oregon and western Washington

John W. Hanna; Mee-Sook Kim; A. C. Ramsey; D. W. Omdal; R. L. Mulvey; B. A. Goodrich; B. A. Ferguson; J. J. Bronson; E. M. Goheen; K. L. Chadwick; H. S. J. Kearns; I. B. Lockman; A. K. B. LaBarge; J. E. Stewart; H. M. Maffei; B. W. Oblinger; A. L. Smith; Amy Ross-Davis; D. C. Shaw; J. M. LeBoldus; Patrick I. Bennett; B. C. Alveshere; S. M. Ashiglar; G. I McDonald; E. W. I Pitman; J. B. Donley; B. C. Bright; Marcus V. Warwell; Ned B. Klopfenstein

Treesearch

Maximum entropy-based bioclimatic models predict areas of current and future suitable habitat for Armillaria species in western Oregon and western Washington

Informally Refereed

Authors:

John W. Hanna, Mee-Sook Kim, A. C. Ramsey, D. W. Omdal, R. L. Mulvey, B. A. Goodrich, B. A. Ferguson, J. J. Bronson, E. M. Goheen, K. L. Chadwick, H. S. J. Kearns, I. B. Lockman, A. K. B. LaBarge, J. E. Stewart, H. M. Maffei, B. W. Oblinger, A. L. Smith, Amy Ross-Davis, D. C. Shaw, J. M. LeBoldus, Patrick I. Bennett, B. C. Alveshere, S. M. Ashiglar, G. I McDonald, E. W. I Pitman, J. B. Donley, B. C. Bright, Marcus V. Warwell, Ned B. Klopfenstein

Year:

2020

Type:

Paper

Station:

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Source:

In: Reynolds, Gregory J.; Wilhelmi, Nicholas P.; Palacios, Patsy, compilers. Proceeding of the 66th Western International Forest Disease Work Conference; 3-7 June 2019; Estes Park, CO. WIFDWC: www.wifdwc.org. p. 161-170.

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Abstract

Climate change is predicted to increase the impacts of Armillaria root disease as host trees become maladapted to their environment, escalating tree stress, and potentially increasing susceptibly to Armillaria pathogens (e.g., Klopfenstein et al. 2009, Kliejunas et al. 2009, Kliejunas 2011, Sturrock et al. 2011, Dempster 2017, Kubiak et al. 2017, Aslam & Magel 2018). Powerful statistical bioclimatic modeling methods [e.g., Maximum entropy (Maxent)] are available to determine probable suitable climate space and potential distribution for Armillaria species for contemporary and future time periods, even with minimal presence data (Phillips et al. 2006, Pearson et al. 2007, Klopfenstein 2009a). Currently, only limited information is available on Armillaria spp. in western Washington and western Oregon, yet this region is expected to experience strong climate-change influences. In 2016, a collaborative project was initiated to determine the distribution of Armillaria species in the region under changing climates.

Keywords

climate change, Armillaria root disease, distribution

Citation

Hanna, J. W.; Kim, M. -S.; Ramsey, A. C.; Omdal, D. W.; Mulvey, R. L.; Goodrich, B. A.; Ferguson, B. A.; Bronson, J. J.; Goheen, E. M.; Chadwick, K. L.; Kearns, H. S. J.; Lockman, I. B.; LaBarge, A. K. B.; Stewart, J. E.; Maffei, H. M.; Oblinger, B. W.; Smith, A. L.; Ross-Davis, A. L.; Shaw, D. C.; LeBoldus, J. M.; Bennett, P. I.; Alveshere, B. C.; Ashiglar, S. M.; McDonald, G. I.; Pitman, E. W. I.; Donley, J. B.; Bright, B. C.; Warwell, M. V.; Klopfenstein, N. B. 2020. Maximum entropy-based bioclimatic models predict areas of current and future suitable habitat for Armillaria species in western Oregon and western Washington. In: Reynolds, Gregory J.; Wilhelmi, Nicholas P.; Palacios, Patsy, compilers. Proceeding of the 66th Western International Forest Disease Work Conference; 3-7 June 2019; Estes Park, CO. WIFDWC: www.wifdwc.org. p. 161-170.