Download (PDF 602 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/63230.pdf
Abstract
Climate change will influence wildfire on private forest lands via two pathways: (1) changes in temperatures and precipitation will induce direct changes in wildfire likelihood and severity; and (2) changes in management by forest landowners seeking to adapt to climate change will result in shifts in species composition and harvest timing and intensity, which act as additional indirect influences on wildfire. We examined private forest landowners’ management behavior in the context of climate change and wildfire, to anticipate how forest landowners in California, Oregon, and Washington (USA) are likely to adapt to climate change and how their adaptation could influence wildfire in the region. Drawing on fine-scaled panel data describing forest conditions, climate, wildfire, and private forest management, we estimated empirical models characterizing forestland owners harvest and replanting decisions in response to climate and wildfire variables. We used our empirical models to simulate forestland owners’ future harvest and replanting decisions, and the likelihood and severity of future wildfires, as private forest landowners shift their management in response to changing climate. Our results suggest that climate change will induce moderate shifts away from Douglas fir in favor of hardwoods and Ponderosa pine, with associated increases in wildfire, particularly in the western Cascades.
Parent Publication
Citation
Hashida, Yukiko; Lewis, David J.; Kline, Jeffrey D. 2020. Anticipating interactions between forest management and wildfire as private forestland owners adapt to climate change. In: Hood, Sharon M.; Drury, Stacy; Steelman, Toddi; Steffens, Ron, tech. eds. The fire continuum—preparing for the future of wildland fire: Proceedings of the Fire Continuum Conference. May 21-24 2018, Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-78. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: 278-282.
