Predicting the floods that follow the flames

Abstract

The immediate effects of wildfire on a community can be disastrous, as was evident with the Camp Fire in 2018 that burned over 95% of the structures in Paradise and Concow, California, and resulted in 85 casualties [one person is still missing to date (15 March 2020)]. But, the secondary effects of wildfire can also have substantial consequences. This was the case in 2017 when the Thomas Fire raged in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties in Southern California, eventually burning 1,141 km2 of landscape. Before the wildfire was 100% contained, a storm system moved over the mountainous terrain above Montecito, California, and produced rainfall rates that triggered deadly debris flows that traveled down the canyons to the Pacific Ocean. Twenty-one people lost their lives [two are still missing to date (15 March 2020)]and more than 400 structures were destroyed or damaged (Kean et al. 2019). These tragic events are expected to become more costly to lives and infrastructure with forest fires becoming more numerous, larger, and longer lasting (Westerling et al. 2006; Miller et al. 2009; Dennison et al. 2014).

Citation

Gourley, Jonathan J.; Vergara, Humberto; Arthur, Ami; Clark, Robert A.; Staley, Dennis; Fulton, John; Hempel, Laura; Goodrich, David C.; Rowden, Katherine; Robichaud, Peter R. 2020. Predicting the floods that follow the flames. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101(7): E1101-E1106. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0040.1.