Predict and attack (or don’t): An econometric approach to large wildfire early detection and suppression effectiveness

Abstract

Large air tankers (LATs) - fixed wing aircraft used for wildfire suppression - are an integral but costly tool for wildfire management. But little evidence is available indicating whether the deployment of LATs is effective at containing fire ignitions during initial attack. Using data on USDA Forest Service wildfire ignitions and LAT deployments from 2010-2012 this paper estimates the effect of deploying a LAT on the likelihood that the fire ignition is contained during initial attack. Results suggest that LATs may be effective for a subset of ignitions with moderate growth potential, but not for ignitions with very high or very low growth potential. However, identifying the treatment effect independent of other factors that determine both deployment and the likelihood of escape remains difficult, and it is possible that LATs are used to achieve objectives not captured by observation of initial attack success.

Citation

Katuwal, Hari; Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew; Stonesifer, Crystal; Calkin, David.2018. Predict and attack (or don’t): An econometric approach to large wildfire early detection and suppression effectiveness. Paper No. 274304 for presentation at the 2018 Annual Meeting; August 5-7; Washington, D.C. Milwaukee, WI: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Online: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea18:274304.