Valuing Monitoring Networks for New Pathogens: The Case of Soybean Rust

Abstract

We estimate producers' value of information provided by alternative configurations of a monitoring network for an invasive wind-borne crop disease, soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi). Soybean producers use monitoring information to inform themselves about their risk of being infected and to make fungicide application decisions. The value of information is the expected gain in producers' profit associated with the use of the monitoring network, and we estimate this with a dynamic model of producer decision-making. We find that the value of the sentinel plot network increases with the number of sentinel plots, reaching a maximum at 400 sentinel plots. In addition, the optimal spatial arrangement of sentinel plots indicated by our model is substantially different from actual placements. Current sentinel plots are disproportionately placed in the Southern US where the risk of infection is high, but the amount of soybean is relatively small. Our estimates suggest more plots should be placed in the Corn Belt where the risk of an infection is lower, but where much more soybean is produced.

Citation

Thakur, Tiesta; Haight, Robert G.; Homans, Frances; Hurley, Terrance M. 2018. Valuing Monitoring Networks for New Pathogens: The Case of Soybean Rust. In: 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. No 273870. 30 p. DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273870.