Developing a gridded model for probabilistic forecasting of wildland-fire ignitions across the lower 48 States

Ned Nikolov; Phillip Bothwell; John Snook

Treesearch

Developing a gridded model for probabilistic forecasting of wildland-fire ignitions across the lower 48 States

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Ned Nikolov, Phillip Bothwell, John Snook

Year:

2022

Type:

Miscellaneous

Station:

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Source:

USFS-CSU Joint Venture Agreement Phase 2 (2019-2021) - Final Report. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 33p.

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Abstract

The National Predictive Services (NPS) asked the USFS Rocky Mountain Center for Fire-Weather Intelligence (RMC) as a part of the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program (FFS) at the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) to assist with the development of a system of statistical models for predicting the ignition probability (chance of start) & growth potential of wildfires on a national grid using NWS meteorological forecast data as input. The development of this gridded system of predictive equations was envisioned to proceed in 3 stages (phases).

Keywords

probabilistic forecasting, wildland-fire, ignitions, predictive equations

Citation

Nikolov, Ned; Bothwell, Phillip; Snook, John. 2022. Developing a gridded model for probabilistic forecasting of wildland-fire ignitions across the lower 48 States. USFS-CSU Joint Venture Agreement Phase 2 (2019-2021) - Final Report. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 33p.