Accelerating climate change: an exploration of cascading future implications

David N. N. Bengston; Noor Adwan; Abby Bierwerth; Meghan S. Cahill; Mia H. Deaven; Celeste M. Dohm-Palmer; Nicholas Esch; Emily E. Gillette; Courtney L. Grandbois; Emilly A. Jopp; Derek J. Kelley; Thomas Knauss; George H. Kubik; Jack D. Schroeder; Swetha Shankar; Eidan R. Silver; Kiersten L. Wille

doi:10.6531/JFS.202209_27(1).0003

Treesearch

Accelerating climate change: an exploration of cascading future implications

Formally Refereed

Authors:

David N. N. Bengston, Noor Adwan, Abby Bierwerth, Meghan S. Cahill, Mia H. Deaven, Celeste M. Dohm-Palmer, Nicholas Esch, Emily E. Gillette, Courtney L. Grandbois, Emilly A. Jopp, Derek J. Kelley, Thomas Knauss, George H. Kubik, Jack D. Schroeder, Swetha Shankar, Eidan R. Silver, Kiersten L. Wille

Year:

2022

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Northern Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202209_27(1).0003

Source:

Journal of Futures Studies. 27(1): 29-40.

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Download (PDF 7.46 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/65469.pdf

Abstract

The impacts of climate change have accelerated significantly in recent decades. This paper explores the cascading effects of accelerating climate change using a participatory Futures Research method. The Implications Wheel® method was used to identify and score possible higher-order implications of three key direct impacts of accelerating climate change: Increasing crop failures; more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting heatwaves; and more frequent, intense, and larger wildfires. Analysis of the many second- and third-order implications that were generated revealed implications with significance for proactive planning, surprising insights, major emergent themes, and a handful of potential high-impact wild cards.

Keywords

Accelerating Climate Change, Implications Wheel®, Participatory Methods, Cascading Impacts

Citation

Bengston, David N.; Adwan, Noor; Bierwerth, Abby; Cahill, Meghan S.; Deaven, Mia H.; Dohm-Palmer, Celeste M.; Esch, Nicholas; Gillette, Emily E.; Grandbois, Courtney L.; Jopp, Emilly A.; Kelley, Derek J.; Knauss, Thomas; Kubik, George H.; Schroeder, Jack D.; Shankar, Swetha; Silver, Eidan R.; Wille, Kiersten L. 2022. Accelerating climate change: an exploration of cascading future implications. Journal of Futures Studies. 27(1): 29-40. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202209_27(1).0003.