National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

Jaana Korhonen; Jesse Henderson; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102987

Treesearch

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

Formally Refereed

Authors:

Jaana Korhonen, Jesse Henderson, Jeffrey P. Prestemon

Year:

2023

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Southern Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102987

Source:

Forest Policy and Economics

Download (PDF 1.93 MB)

Download (PDF 1.93 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/66191.pdf

Abstract

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. The share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

Keywords

Prices, Cointegration, National timber, Exports, Salvage

Citation

Korhonen, Jaana; Henderson, Jesse D.; Prestemon, Jeffrey. 2023. National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach. Forest Policy and Economics. 152(6): 102987-. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102987.