Climate change habitat model forecasts for eight owl species in the Southwestern US

Abstract

We used pre-1990 climate envelopes and an ecosystem vulnerability model to forecast shifts in the extent of breeding habitats for eight owl species occurring in montane woodlands and forests of the southwestern US. For five of the eight species, the regional habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. The steepest rates of habitat loss were predicted for the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus) and the flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus). The boreal owl, which is absent in Arizona and at the trailing edge of its distribution in New Mexico, was projected to retain only about 15% of its mapped regional habitat by 2090. Generalist and lower-elevation owl species fared better in our model predictions, while the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis) habitat was projected to contract locally yet expand to the north. The results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for Southwestern North America’s upper-elevation owls. Long-distance migration and low philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations in adapting to the regional loss of montane woodland and forest habitats.

Citation

Cartron, Jean-Luc E.; Triepke, Jack; Stahlecker, Dale W.; Arsenault, David P.; Ganey, Joseph L.; Hathcock, Charles D.; Thompson, Hunter K.; Cartron, Matthieu C.; Calhoun, Kenneth C. 2023. Climate change habitat model forecasts for eight owl species in the Southwestern US. Animals. 13: 3770.