Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Abstract

Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.

Citation

Kennedy, Robert E.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Dietze, Michael C.; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Babcock, Chad; Baker, David F.; Brown, Molly E.; Davis, Kenneth J.; Duncanson, Laura; Feng, Sha; Hudak, Andrew T.; Liu, Junjie; Patterson, Paul L.; Raczka, Brett; Cochrane, Mark A.; Carlo Edil A., Sepulveda; Vargas, Rodrigo. 2024. Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: Lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System. Environmental Research Letters. 19: 123003.