Optimizing the Portuguese wildfire fuel reduction program

Abstract

The escalating wildfire problem in Portugal motivated policymakers to develop a wildfire management plan that calls for rural fuel reduction throughout the country. The plan specifies fuel treatments on 250,000-300,000 ha per year over 10 years. Spatial priorities for treatments were delegated to regional and municipal entities. We use a scenario optimization model to allocate and map fuel treatment projects using three hazard metrics (ignition probability, building exposure to wildfire, and potential large fires). The results reveal sharp decision trade-offs among the three priorities within many municipalities. Allocating a proportion of treatments to all municipalities rather than focusing on those with the highest hazard significantly reduces treatment efficiency. European countries that are grappling with climate-driven extreme wildfire events can utilize this methodology to systematically optimize the implementation of new wildfire policies, rather than rely on local, ad hoc prioritization of fuel management investments to achieve fire policy goals.

Citation

Ager, Alan; Aparıcio, Bruno A.; Pereira, Jose M. C. 2025. Optimizing the Portuguese wildfire fuel reduction program. Cell Reports Sustainability. 2: 100361.