Northwest Forest Plan—The first 25 years (1994–2018): socioeconomic monitoring results

Abstract

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) record of decision directs federal agencies to monitor the social and economic impacts of the NWFP in two ways: determine whether the supply of timber and nontimber resources is predictable and sustainable; and evaluate changes in local communities associated with federal forest management. The methodology for this 25-year NWFP report combines established practices for measuring timber and other forest resource supply trends with the application of novel social science research approaches.

County-scale quantitative analysis of social and economic change since 1980 shows no clear correlation between federal forest management and social and economic change during the 1994–2017 “NWFP era.” In the 1980s counties where both federal forest lands and forest industry employment were highly important experienced negative socioeconomic change; the same counties changed little during the NWFP era itself. Counties minimally reliant on federal forest lands, but highly reliant on forest industry just before 1990, experienced negative socioeconomic change primarily during the 1990s and 2000s. Counties with high social vulnerability in 2017 generally had unusually high dependence on household income from private sector forest industry employment in 1978.

Qualitative case studies revealed that 9 of 10 rural communities experienced negative social and economic change during the NWFP era; the degree of change was related to geographic isolation. Two communities lost essentially all forest management infrastructure, but seven retained some industry employers, an agency duty station, or both. Community interviewees cited declines in services and civic engagement as problems much more frequently than lack of timber industry jobs. Multiple industry employers reported difficulty locating and retaining employees. Interviewees lamented the loss of community social capital traditionally contributed by federal agency staff as an example of how their community had been harmed by implementation of the NWFP, rather than reduced timber harvest volumes or forest industry jobs. These findings suggest that many rural communities in the NWFP area have experienced socioeconomic decline since 1994 and that changes to forest management and industry are important factors in the decline. However, the types of social and economic changes are contingent on local history and geography, and thus vary widely across the region.

Citation

Grinspoon, Elisabeth, tech. coord. 2025. Northwest Forest Plan—The first 25 years (1994–2018): socioeconomic monitoring results. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-1019. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 308 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-1019.