Fire: An Analysis to Support the Southern Forest Outlook

Abstract

This report in support of the Southern Forest Outlook assesses current and future risks associated with wildfire and smoke in the Southern United States, through a synthesis of literature review and new analysis. Key questions concern wildfire risk management and resilience-building efforts in the face of a changing climate, risks to forest ecosystem services, the potentially disproportionate impacts of fire and smoke on socioeconomically vulnerable populations, and how the growing wildland-urban interface, changes in fire regimes, and changes in safe prescribed burning conditions are likely to impact future management efforts. Results portray the regional geography of wildfire and smoke risks to people and ecosystem services, and where high return on fuel reduction investments can be achieved. Modeled future changes suggest shifts towards forests more prone to hazardous fire, with changes in risks to people and ecosystem services varying geographically and among different future scenarios. Results also suggest that preemptive forest management efforts including prescribed fire can offset future changes in wildfire and smoke risks. Ongoing and future changes in climate, forests, and society present complex wildfire risk challenges, but pathways exist to build forest resilience and mitigate risk.

Citation

Pomara, L. Y.; Gould, N. P.; Nepal, S.; Emmett, K. D.; Goodrick, S. L.; Lee, D. C. 2025. Fire: An Analysis to Support the Southern Forest Outlook. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-280. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 57 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/SRS-GTR-280.