Beyond burn probability: The human side of wildfire risk

Abstract

Across the Pacific Northwest’s fire-prone landscapes, where human activity accounts for about 58 percent of all ignitions, socioeconomic factors point to why some communities face repeated blazes and some remain untouched. These patterns raise critical questions about the allocations of wildfire resources

After analyzing more than 104,000 wildfire ignitions across Oregon and Washington from 1992–2018, researchers Jeff Kline, Mindy Crandall, and Caitlyn Reilley reveal a paradox in wildfire risk management. While current risk assessment tools predict higher wildfire hazard in well-resourced communities, some socially vulnerable communities actually experience more fires.

Human activities caused 73 percent of ignitions west of the Cascades and 48 percent east of the Cascades. Recreation and open debris burning represented the largest sources at 32 and 24 percent, respectively. Most ignitions involved discretionary behaviors—intentional fire use that could be influenced by prevention efforts.

The researchers found that traditional risk models based on biophysical factors like vegetation, terrain, and weather miss crucial human factors. Current resource allocation based on such models may inadvertently contribute to inequities by directing risk mitigation funding toward areas that appear risky on paper but experience fewer actual fires. Integrating social vulnerability into risk assessment could create predictions that more effectively consider the community’s vulnerability, ensuring that resources reach communities facing the greatest fire burden.

Citation

Kantor, Sylvia; Kline, Jeff; Crandall, Mindy. 2025. Beyond burn probability: The human side of wildfire risk. Science Findings 276. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 6 p.