The economic impact of public resource supply constraints in northeast Oregon.

Abstract

Traditional, fixed-price (input-output) economic models provide a useful framework for conceptualizing links in a regional economy. Apparent shortcomings in these models, however, can severely restrict our ability to deduce valid prescriptions for public policy and economic development. A more efficient approach using regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well as a brief survey of relevant literature is presented. Computable general equilibrium results under several different resource policy scenarios are examined and contrasted with a fixed-price analysis. In the most severe CGE scenario, elimination of Federal range programs caused the loss of 1,371 jobs (2.3 percent of regional employment) and $29 million (1.6 percent) of household income, and an 80-percent reduction in Federal log supplies resulted in the loss of 3,329 jobs (5.5 percent of regional employment) and $76 million (4.2 percent) of household income. These results do not include positive economic impacts associated with improvement in salmon runs. Economic counter scenarios indicate that increases in tourism and high-technology manufacturing and growth in the population of retirees can largely offset total employment and income losses. Evidence suggests that a regional economic transformation, characterized by stable or declining employment in resource-based industries and growth in tourism and retirement-based services, is already underway.

Citation

Waters, Edward C; Holland, David W.; Haynes, Richard W. 1977. The economic impact of public resource supply constraints in northeast Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-398. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 23 p. (Quigley, Thomas M., ed.; Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project: scientific assessment)