Operational fire spread potential forecasting for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies U.S.A.
| Authors: | Zachary Holden, Erin Noonan-Wright, Alan Swanson, Mojtaba Sadegh |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Type: | Research Note |
| Station: | Rocky Mountain Research Station |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-RN-114 |
| Source: | Res. Note RMRS-RN-114. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. |
Abstract
This report describes operational fire spread potential forecasts for the Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountain regions of the United States. We used satellite thermal detection data to estimate daily area burned from 547 wildfires that burned between 2012-2021. Using weather and soil moisture data corresponding to the day and location of each fire, we developed simple linear and logistic regression models estimating daily fire growth and potential for fire spread greater than 70 acres. These models are used to create daily prediction grids for the current date and for a 2-day forecast period for the Northwest U.S. These map outputs are publicly available and can be used by fire managers and predictive services staff to assess fire conditions to support strategic planning during the fire season.