Assessing community and protected area exposure to wildfires in Navarra, Spain
| Authors: | Fermín Alcasena, Alan Ager, Julia Loján, Isabel Pinto, Ignacio García, Pere Gelabert, Mikel Repáraz, Cristóbal Molina |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Type: | Scientific Journal |
| Station: | Rocky Mountain Research Station |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.3390/f17060699 |
| Source: | Forests |
Abstract
The unprecedented 2022 wildfire season in Navarra, northern Spain, marked a turning point in regional wildfire management, when seven simultaneous large fires during a June heatwave burned more than 17,000 ha in just a few days, overwhelming suppression capacity and highlighting the limits of a strategy based primarily on ignition prevention and fire suppression. In this study, we implemented a stochastic wildfire modeling system based on the Minimum Travel Time algorithm, historical ignition patterns, spatial fuel data, and spatiotemporal weather variability to assess community and protected area exposure to wildfire. We simulated more than 50,000 fire season replicates under extreme fire weather conditions, estimating annual burn probability across fire intensity classes at 50 m spatial resolution. We then intersected modeled fire perimeters with building footprints representing residential and industrial structures, as well as protected areas, to assess the spatial distribution of exposure across the region. Results showed strong concentration of community exposure, with three fourths of residential and industrial exposure concentrated in just over one third of the total municipal area. Across Navarra, mean annual modeled exposure summed to 120 residential buildings and 16 industrial structures. Across the protected area network, mean annual burned area summed to 90 ha year−1, including 68 ha year−1 at flame lengths greater than 2.5 m, while burned forest area was 16 ha year−1. Protected areas in southern Navarra and forested protected areas in central and northern Navarra showed the highest modeled exposure, identifying priority landscapes where prevention, restoration, and evaluation of managed fire options could support more resilient ecosystems. This study provides a scientific basis for improving wildfire risk governance and strengthening the resilience of communities and protected areas under increasing wildfire pressure in the region.