Multi-criteria decision analysis for mass timber sourcing for construction in the United States
| Authors: | Vaibhav Kumar, Marco Lo Ricco, Prakash Nepal, Poonam Khatri, Richard Bergman, Neelam C. Poudyal |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Type: | Scientific Journal |
| Station: | Forest Products Laboratory |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149188 |
| Source: | Journal of Cleaner Production |
Abstract
Mass timber (MT) is among the most sustainable construction materials for building structures. While U.S. building codes facilitate MT construction up to 18 stories of height, the frequent international sourcing of MT raises sustainability concerns regarding transportation emissions. Previous research relies primarily on deterministic whole building life cycle assessment (WBLCA), which lacks the mechanisms to balance environmental impacts with competing economic and logistical factors under uncertainty. To address this, we developed a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework that employs a Weighted Sum Model (WSM) to establish a deterministic baseline integrating upfront global warming impacts (GWI) (Modules A1–A4), material and transportation costs, and transportation times. To account for data ambiguity, this baseline is then expanded into a stochastic Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (10,000 iterations) using parametric uncertainties (±40% for GWI and ±25% for costs). This framework was applied to four diverse U.S. cities, evaluating eight domestic and four international suppliers across multi-modal networks under three weighting cases (prioritizing GWI, Cost, or Time). Probabilistic results indicate that when prioritizing GWI, Canadian imports generally achieve the highest probability of optimality due to lower manufacturing emissions. Conversely, domestic U.S. manufacturers consistently emerge as optimal options when prioritizing economic costs or delivery times. These findings demonstrate that geographic proximity does not guarantee the highest sustainability, and MCDA often yields different optimal selections than WBLCA alone. Ultimately, this robust, customizable framework optimizes MT supply chain decisions and identifies areas where domestic infrastructure must improve for the local MT industry to outcompete the global marketplace.