Tricolored bat spatiotemporal occurrence patterns and current core use areas in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia

Abstract

White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), has led to widespread declines in tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus) populations across the eastern United States. Management actions have largely focused on increasing overwinter survival rates of Pd-infected bats through directly manipulating hibernacula. Maintenance of high-quality active-season habitat is also an important component of bat population recovery because it can result in higher body fat composition during the overwintering period and therefore increase survival rates of individuals affected by WNS. We aimed to provide spatial information to wildlife managers in the Monongahela National Forest (MNF) in West Virginia by identifying MNF locations containing high-quality active-season tricolored bat habitat. We created a habitat suitability model (HSM) using pre-Pd occurrence data and the ensemble learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) to quantify spatial variation in summer habitat suitability for tricolored bats in MNF. We then estimated how the species’ spatial distribution changed after Pd became endemic to the MNF using indicator kriging models and combined the HSM results with indicator kriging results to identify current core use areas within the MNF. Across the study area, the landscape was classified as 8.2% least suitable habitat, 62.6% low suitability, 25.4% moderate suitability, and 3.8% high suitability. The estimated average probability of tricolored bat occurrence across the study area declined from 34.6% to 10.2% following onset of WNS. We identified three core use areas after Pd became endemic for the tricolored bat in the MNF, which encompassed 114.9 ha. The results of this study can be used by managers to identify focal locations and habitat characteristics for conservation and restoration of tricolored bat habitat.

Citation

Spaid, Sara; Mikesell, Zane; Brown, Donald J.; Strager, Michael P.; Dahle, Gregory A. 2026. Tricolored bat spatiotemporal occurrence patterns and current core use areas in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia. Journal of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. 13:70-82.