Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change
| Authors: | Siyi Sun, M. Francesca Cotrufo, R. A. Viscarra Rossel, Carsten W. Mueller, Morimaru Kida, Ailsa G. Hardie, Alec Mackay, Alexander Krichels, Wulf Amelung, Amit Kumar, Azamat Suleymanov, Baoku Shi, Bernard Jackson Cosby, César Plaza, César Terrer, Chang Liang, Chang Liao, Christopher Just, Ding Guo, Emanuele Lugato, Enqing Hou, Fan Ding, Fazhu Zhao, Feng Tao, Fernando T. Maestre, Franco Bilotto, Fuzhong Wu, Gisela V. García, Gongwen Luo, Guangxuan Han, Guillermo A. Studdert, Guillermo Hernandez-Ramirez, Guoxiang Niu, Gervasio Piñeiro, Gustavo Saiz, Haikuo Zhang, Hamada Abdelrahman, Haodi Xu, Inma Lebron, Irina Kurganova, Jennifer Blesh, Jeppe Å. Kristensen, Ji Liu, Jiacong Zhou, Jianping Wu, Jitendra Ahirwal, Junji Cao, Jørgen E. Olesen, Karin Kauer, Katerina Georgiou, Kees Jan van Groenigen, Kristof Van Oost, Kwame Agyei Frimpong, Lei Deng, Liane G. Benning, Liang Guo, Lizzie Mujuru, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Maoz Dor, Mehdi Rahmati, Min Luo, Olga Kalinina, Olli Hyvärinen, Pablo García-Palacios, Paige Hansen, Patra Rounak, Pengpeng Duan, Pengzhi Zhao, Peter M. Homyak, Rajan Ghimire, Renaldas Žydelis, Roland Bol, Ronaldo Vibart, Ruiying Chang, Ruyi Luo, Sebastián Villarino, Shuai Xue, Shuli Niu, Shuotong Chen, Tengfei Yu, Steven J. Hall, Thomas Kätterer, Tida Ge, Vusumuzi Erick Mbanjwa, Vyacheslav M. Semenov, Weixing Liu, Weiyu Shi, Wei Zhang, Wolfgang Wanek, Wolfram Buss, Xiangrong Cheng, Xiankai Lu, Xiaojun Shi, Xiaoli Cheng, Xiaorong Wei, Xiaotong Liu, Xuhui Zhou, Yahya Kooch, Yangquanwei Zhong, Yanjiang Cai, Yan Yang, Yiqi Luo, Yixuan Zhang, Yunbin Qin, Yunting Fang, Yuting Liang, Yuyi Li, Zengming Chen, Zhanfeng Liu, Zhaoliang Song, Zhongkui Luo, Zhisheng An, Ji Chen |
| Year: | 2023 |
| Type: | Scientific Journal |
| Station: | Rocky Mountain Research Station |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2 |
| Source: | Nature Communications |
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOCstored as POC (fPOC) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that fPOC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) release of 81.34 Pg CO2-equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.