Tongass National Forest timber demand: projections for 2025–2040

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service faces unique requirements to consider potential future demand for Tongass National Forest timber in their periodic land management planning efforts. In support of this need, the Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Research Station has completed five prior timber demand analyses for southeast Alaska to assist with meeting statutory requirements to estimate planning-cycle demand for Tongass National Forest timber. Using the materials balance model (used in prior analyses) and updated harvest figures, mill production data, and export volumes, we project timber demand from 2025–2040 for three potential future scenarios—continuation of current trends, increased local demand, and expansion of Forest Service log exports. The continuation of current trends and increased local demand scenarios result in modest increases in timber demand for the Tongass National Forest relative to that seen at the end of the 2010s but still below that observed in prior years. In the increased log export scenario, projected timber demand increases markedly to well more than what has been experienced this century.

Citation

White, Eric M.; Maher, Anna T., tech eds. 2026. Tongass National Forest timber demand: projections for 2025–2040. Res. Bull. PNW-RB-274. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 18 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/PNW-RB-274.