A risk analysis approach for using discriminant functions to manage logging-related landslides on granitic terrain

Raymond M. Rice; Norman H. Pillsbury; Kurt W. Schmidt

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A risk analysis approach for using discriminant functions to manage logging-related landslides on granitic terrain

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Raymond M. Rice, Norman H. Pillsbury, Kurt W. Schmidt

Year:

1985

Type:

Miscellaneous Publication

Station:

Pacific Southwest Research Station

Source:

Forest Science 31(3): 772-784.

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Abstract

Abstract - A linear discriminant function, developed to predict debris avalanches after clearcut logging on a granitic batholith in northwestern California, was tested on data from two batholiths. The equation was inaccurate in predicting slope stability on one of them. A new equation based on slope, crown cover, and distance from a stream (retained from the original equation) predicted stability on all three batholiths with an overall accuracy of 83 percent. A procedure is described that can be used to decide how to harvest slide-prone slopes. The procedure uses the manager's estimates of contending resource values and environmental risks together with data from a proposed harvest area. By the algorithm presented, the manager can determine the landslide risk threshold to follow and achieve the greatest net benefit from a timber harvest. FOREST SCI. 31:772- 784

Keywords

PSW4351, debris avalanches, risk analysis, clearcutting, Klamath Mountains, linear discriminant function, northwestern California, landslide

Citation

Rice, Raymond M.; Pillsbury, Norman H.; Schmidt, Kurt W. 1985. A risk analysis approach for using discriminant functions to manage logging-related landslides on granitic terrain. Forest Science 31(3): 772-784.