Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

Claire A. Montgomery

doi:10.2737/PNW-RP-412

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Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Claire A. Montgomery

Year:

1989

Type:

Research Paper

Station:

Pacific Northwest Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2737/PNW-RP-412

Source:

Res. Pap. PNW-RP-412. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 39 p

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Abstract

A model of U.S. housing demand and supply was developed that projects housing starts for use in long-term forest planning. Housing demand was shown to respond to the current sale price and the user capital cost of housing and to the size and age composition of the population. Current sale price is determined in the new construction market. Supply of new construction was modeled and was shown to have a supply price elasticity of zero. The choice of housing type was shown to respond to the age of the householder and, in some age classes, to the price of housing services. Two projections of housing starts by housing type from 1987 to 2040 were produced; they differ in the assumed rate of discards from the existing housing stock.

Keywords

Housing markets, housing demand, new residential construction

Citation

Montgomery, Claire A. 1989. Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-412. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 39 p