Understanding and improving the effectiveness of implementing mobile phone-based emergency early warning system

The Forest Service lacks a standardized, system-wide mobile phone-based Emergency Early Warning (EEW) system, leading many local forests and offices to rely on automated notification systems supported by county or local partners. To address this issue, the Forest Service is developing their own EEW system to be implemented across all forests. However, designing an effective system requires considering several factors, including understanding people’s preferences and willingness to enroll in such a system, whether they respond to warnings, and what influences their decision to heed evacuation orders. While current research using stated preference methods has examined factors influencing evacuation decisions for natural disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes, there is currently limited research providing evidence and insight into these crucial aspects for EEW warning systems during wildfire events. Previous research indicates that mandatory evacuation orders significantly increase the likelihood of evacuation, along with hazard severity and accessibility of safe shelters. Further research is needed on how all of these factors specifically affect responses to wildfire warnings and the optimal way to communicate via EEW.

The increase in smartphone availability, and their associated mobility data, can significantly enhance how we understand public evacuation decisions. This study proposes leveraging real-time evacuation actions before, during, and after a disaster, and the recorded timing of individuals receiving EEW notifications. This approach differs from previous studies which solely focused on pre- and post-disaster surveys, by allowing for precise timing and location data relative to disaster evacuation areas. The study will examine the degree to which phone-based EEW system prompt evacuations to determine their effectiveness during wildfire emergencies. To better understand people’s response to wildfire events, this study will also survey residents and recreationists on to their perception and willingness to pay for mobile phone-based EEW systems, as well as what influences the public to opt-in or opt-out of such a program. Finally, community workshops will be organized to bring in various stakeholders. These workshops will serve as a platform to solicit diverse perspectives and constructive feedback, ensuring that this study meets the communities' needs.

Objectives

1. Understand the key factors that influence people’s preferences and participation decisions for wildfire Emergency Early Warning systems with two different enrollment schemes —opt-in and opt-out.
2. Assess the effectiveness of wildfire evacuation orders.
3. Engage in community outreach to inform best practices for an effective wildfire Emergency Early Warning system for both opt-in and opt-out enrollment schemes.