Development and delivery of tools to enhance integrated wildfire planning and response

Project 1

The first of three projects will discover, develop, and quantify spatially explicit ecosystem and landscape patterns. This will allow us to evaluate complex patterns, processes, and management approaches across entire landscapes. In the process, we will modernize data collection and research workflow systems to improve forest management and wildfire suppression operations.

In addition, the project will assess ecological, social, and fire response systems in a changing climate. We will investigate how interacting forces such as fire, climate, and vegetation disturb ecosystem processes and the implications for wildland fire management and planning, fire ecology, and fuels management. Additional funding will be made available to university partners to support assessment of fuel treatment and fire suppression effectiveness and the application of fuel treatments to strategic fire planning.

Project 2 

Accurate fuels data that are updated on at least an annual cycle are critical to successful development and implementation of analytics to support strategic fire management planning and the transfer of emerging science to managers in the National Forest System. Under this project, the Fire Modeling Institute will support three new spatial analyst positions with a focus on fire and fuels datasets. The analysts will enhance the Fire Modeling Institute’s existing capacity in spatial data development and analysis work related to spatial fuels datasets. These datasets are critical inputs to quantitative wildfire risk assessments, PODs, outcome-based performance metrics, strategic identification and prioritization of fuel treatment opportunities, and other facets of the agency fuels management work.

Project 3

Project three aims to increase the accuracy, availability, and distribution of fire weather data used in wildland fire operations. Specific research objectives include:

1. Improve high-resolution wind forecasts for operational use in wildland fire.
2. Develop methods to rapidly assimilate, process, and disseminate information on evolving dangerous fire weather conditions.

Specifically, this team is working to further develop and maintain the high-resolution wind model, WindNinja, and the Fire Weather Alert System mobile app. We are also organizing a focus group of smokejumpers to guide development of a specific WindNinja mobile application that will help jumpers and spotters assess potential jump spots. 

It is critical that we provide firefighters and fire managers with the best estimates of fine-scale winds in mountainous terrain, and alert field personnel to approaching hazardous weather that could jeopardize operations and firefighter safety. WindNinja and the Fire Weather Alert System can also help us assess, test, and improve other fire management tools, including the Suppression Difficulty Index, Potential Control Locations, and Potential Operational Delineations.

Fine-scale topographic wind patterns shown in WindNinja.

Objectives

1. The Rocky Mountain Research Station Wildfire Risk Management Science (WRMS) team (Principle Investigator Dr. David Calkin) will increase research capacity to:
   1. Develop analytics and applications primarily focused on next-generation models and decision support, with an emphasis on technology transfer and science delivery.
   2. Explore adaptation and mitigation of ecological, social, and fire response system degradation under a changing climate.
2. The Fire Modeling Institute (Principle Investigator Greg Dillon) will increase capacity to integrate new science into LANDFIRE and other national fuels datasets that form the foundation for strategic fire management, risk assessment, and Risk Management Assistance analytics.
3. The Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire, Fuels, and Smoke program (Principle Investigator Natalie Wagenbrenner) will support and accelerate ongoing development of the Fire Weather Alert System and Wind Ninja applications.

Expected Project Results 

A. Outputs:

This project will improve data and systems for: 

1. Fuels and fire weather information
2. The POD planning process and related data analytics
3. The Risk Management Assistance program
4. LANDFIRE products

This project will also expand co-development of actionable science within the existing partnership between Rocky Mountain Research Station and Fire and Aviation Management.

B. Expected Outcomes:

Improved research tools that will directly inform wildfire risk reduction, suppression response effectiveness, firefighter safety and situational awareness, strategic fuels management prioritization and planning, prescribed fire planning, and outcome-based performance measurement.

C. Metrics of Success:

We will evaluate how improved research tools are adopted and integrated within existing strategic decision processes, including:

1. Fuels mitigation strategies
2. Pre-fire planning exercises
3. Wildfire incident strategies