Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Frederick W. Bratten

doi:10.2737/PSW-GTR-66

Treesearch

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Frederick W. Bratten

Year:

1982

Type:

General Technical Report

Station:

Pacific Southwest Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2737/PSW-GTR-66

Source:

USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PSW-066, 11 p.

Download (PDF 707 KB)

Download (PDF 707 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/24116.pdf

Abstract

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire management areas. The model serves as the framework for the Fire Economics Evaluation System now being designed at the Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. Outputs from the model will consist of probability distributions for changes in resources caused by fire and for a measure of economic efficiency over a planning period.

Keywords

Fire Economics Evaluation System, fire economics, fire management, probability model

Citation

Bratten, Frederick W. 1982. Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-66. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 11 p.