Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

Abstract

Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for individual fire-danger stations. Difficulties in preparation and use of these aids by field personnel were investigated during 2 summers on 5 ranger districts in the national forests of Oregon and Washington. Emphasis was given to accuracy of predictions of changes and other situations important to fire control. Actually tested were: (1) aids for adapting area forecasts of wind speed and relative humidity, (2) a procedure for predicting wind speed, (3) aids for the use of predicted relative humidity in forecasting fuel moisture, and (4) routine statistical procedures for predicting wind speed, fuel moisture, relative humidity, and burning index class.

Citation

Cramer, Owen P. 1958. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations. PNW Old Station Research Paper No. 28: 37 p.