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Observations on the predictive value of short-term stake tests

Informally Refereed
Download (PDF 103 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/33204.pdf

Abstract

This paper compares average ratings of test stakes after 3, 4, 5, and 7 years exposure to their subsequent ratings after 11 years. Average ratings from over 200 treatment groups exposed in plots in southern Mississippi were compared to average ratings of a reference preservative. The analysis revealed that even perfect ratings after three years were not a reliable indicator of good performance after 11 years. Only 53% of the treatment groups with an average rating of 10.0 after 3 years had ratings at least as great as the reference preservative after 11 years. This percentage increased to 72% for treatment groups with an average rating of 10.0 after 4 years and 84% for treatment groups with an average rating of 10.0 after 5 years, and 100% for treatment groups with an average rating of 10.0 after 7 years. The data indicate that 3 years of exposure is not sufficient to evaluate a preservative intended for use in ground contact in high hazard areas, and that even slight evidence of vulnerability after 5 years may be a predictor of inadequate future performance.

Citation

Lebow, Stan; Woodward, Bessie; Lebow, Patricia. 2008. Observations on the predictive value of short-term stake tests. Proceedings, 104th annual meeting of the American Wood Protection Association ... Portland, Oregon, May 18-20 2008 : volume 104. Birmingham, Ala. : American Wood Protection Association, c2008: pages 85-88.