Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk Assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin.

Abstract

Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting from changing climate and tree species habitat. Risk was evaluated for three time steps (2040, 2070, 2100) and based on two climate models and two emission scenarios (Hadhi vs. PCMlo).

Parent Publication

• Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Citation

Friggens, Megan M.; Matthews, Stephen N. 2012. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk Assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin. In: Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Patel-Weynand, Toral, eds. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-870. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 256-258.