Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

Abstract

Global changes, including climate change, are rapidly creating new environmental conditions and stressors for forests around the world. Climate change may have modest direct effects, at least initially, but indirect effects and interactions with disturbances can produce important changes in forest composition and landscape pattern (Dale et al. 2001; Gustafson et al. 2010), with consequences for ecological function and ecosystem services. Global Circulation Models generate varied predictions of future climate in any given part of the globe, and precipitation projections are usually much more uncertain than those for temperature (IPCC 2007). Nevertheless, almost all forested regions are expected to be subject to warming trends throughout the current century, with warming already pronounced at high latitudes (IPCC 2007). While precipitation projections are variable and less certain, in very few locations do confidence intervals indicate that precipitation will increase sufficiently to compensate higher evapotranspiration rates caused by increased temperature and, in some locations, precipitation may actually decrease (IPCC 2007). Consequently, drought stress of vegetation is expected to become more common in many parts of the world and this will have consequences for tree establishment, survival, and growth.

Citation

Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas J. 2015. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality. In: Perera, A.H.; Sturtevant, B.R.; Buse, L.J., eds. Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances. New York, NY: Springer: 45-71. Chapter 3.