Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: A choice experiment

Abstract

Weather plays an integral role in fire management due to the direct and indirect effects it has on fire behavior. However, fire managers may not use all information available to them during the decision-making process, instead utilizing mental shortcuts that can bias decision-making. Thus, it is important to evaluate if (and how) fire managers use information like weather forecasts when making tactical decisions. We explore USDA Forest Service fire manager confidence in relative humidity, precipitation, and wind models. We then use a choice experiment where key weather attributes were varied to explore how sensitive fire managers were to changes in specific weather variables when choosing to directly or indirectly attack a fire that is transitioning to extended attack.

Citation

Rapp, Claire E.; Wilson, Robyn S.; Toman, Eric L.; Jolly, W. Matt. 2021. Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: A choice experiment. Fire Ecology. 17: 35.