Mark Twain National Forest climate change impact assessment and vulnerability framework for recreation
| Authors: | P. Danielle Shannon, Leslie Brandt, Matthew Peters, Steven E. Yochum, Robert Gubernick, Rebecca Ewing |
| Year: | 2025 |
| Type: | General Technical Report |
| Station: | Northern Research Station |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-236 |
| Source: | Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-236. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 109 p. |
Abstract
Climate change will have profound effects on recreation, infrastructure, and related opportunities over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates how changes in climate, hydrology, and ecosystems influence the overall vulnerability of the Mark Twain National Forest’s recreation opportunities and related infrastructure under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape (physiography and recreation assets), provided information on observed climate trends (including extreme events and hydrologic changes), described a range of projected future climates (including trends in potential extreme disturbances, hydrologic changes, and impacts to ecosystems and subsequent recreation opportunities), and provided a framework for land managers to assess local risk and vulnerability of recreation and infrastructure assets to climate change. We developed summaries of climate projections from statistically downscaled climate models that represent four distinct climate scenarios (MRI RCP 4.5, MRI RCP 8.5, IPSL RCP 4.5, IPSL RCP 8.5) in order to provide a range of plausible conditions that could impact forest hydrology and ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation activities on the Mark Twain National Forest. We provided a synthesis of the scientific literature on climate impacts to tree species, invasive species, insects and pathogens, wildfires, wildlife, infrastructure, public health and safety, and implications for recreation management.
To help address these impacts, we also developed a vulnerability framework for recreation that builds on the Adaptation Workbook, developed by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science and published by the USDA Forest Service, and the U.S. Forest Service Transportation Resiliency Guidebook to aid land managers when assessing the vulnerability of recreation sites and infrastructure based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This framework can be applied to recreation and infrastructure projects and plans at a variety of spatial scales. We tested this framework on the Mark Twain National Forest’s Red Bluff recreation site in a collaborative workshop with recreation, hydrology, and other resource specialists. The participants rated the recreation site as having a moderate to high vulnerability based on its high risk of future flood damage and soil erosion. This framework can help managers in identifying site- and asset-specific climate-related risks and potential climate vulnerability, a critical component of climate adaptation planning.