Tree species distributions modify decadal trajectories of bird species habitat suitability predicted by climate change

Abstract

Global climate change threatens biodiversity, in part due to its effects on species distributions and habitat suitability. The ability to predict future impacts and discern variability in rates of change is critical for conservation planning. Here, we quantified the relative influence of climate and tree species metrics on contemporary and future patterns of incidence (i.e., an index of broad-scale habitat conditions and a metric of habitat suitability) associated with forest-breeding birds across the eastern USA and assessed trends in decadal trajectories of future projections. We hypothesized that potential future tree species distributions will modify decadal trajectories of bird species habitat suitability predicted by climate change, with differential outcomes associated with tree species remaining static or shifting dynamically over time. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data and randomForest models to evaluate the incidence of 100 forest bird species and quantify the pace of predicted change based on climate alone and in conjunction with static and lagged tree distributions. For 90 forest bird species, our results showed that future tree species distributions altered either the overall trajectory (n = 83) or timing (n = 50) of changes in projections of habitat suitability expected from climate effects only. In particular, maintaining contemporary tree species distributions into the future moderated climate-associated declines in habitat suitability for 78 bird species. Decadal trajectories emphasized the importance of timing, with the greatest declines occurring for 16–30 bird species within the first three decades of the century, depending on the future scenario. Ultimately, these findings underscore the importance of climate-informed, time-sensitive conservation plans for forests and the birds breeding within them.

Citation

Clipp, Hannah L.; McDermott, Molly E.; Peters, Matthew P.; Gougherty, Andrew V.; Prasad, Anantha; Matthews, Stephen N. 2026. Tree species distributions modify decadal trajectories of bird species habitat suitability predicted by climate change. Global Ecology and Conservation. 71: e04396. 13 p. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04396.