Treesearch

How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We examined the error statistics associated with 13 operational wildland fire rate of spread models developed in Australia and North America #see Cruz and Alexander 2013, Table 1#. We used 49 fire spread model evaluation datasets comprising...

The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning cells that strongly depends on local conditions of wind, topography, and vegetation. Radiation and convection from the flaming zone, and ambient radiative heat loss are considered in the preheating process of unburned cells....

Southeastern France is the most wildfire prone region of the country, covering 14.7 percent of its land area-entire country, is the region most affected by wildfires, with 55 percent of the total number of fires recorded in the whole country from 2006 to 2008. It is a typical Mediterranean climate with hot and dry summers, often with strong NW wind, and includes plant communities well adapted to these drastic climate conditions. These combined fuels and weather conditions significantly increase the fire risk in this regions. Regionally, large fires (≥ 100ha) may be up to 11 580 ha although...

Fuels treatments have long mattered, and are expected to into the future. Mangers are trying desperately to quantitatively answer the question "How much of the risk of wildfire to key values is being reduced through fuels management programs?" Serious challenges to continued implementation of fuels treatments persist, such as lack of sufficient resources to accomplish meaningful risk reduction, where to apply those limited resources, how fuels programs contributed to the goals of the Cohesive Strategy, what level of wildfire intensity are treatments designed to mitigate, and can fuels...

This extended abstract describes the preliminary results of a study that sought to determine the most effective ways to develop and apply scientific information about resilience for on-the-ground management. Interviews were conducted with scientists, managers, and other stakeholders in the Southwest U.S. following a workshop on ecosystem resilience held in Tucson, Arizona in February 2014. The interviews asked respondents to consider how useful current scientific information is for decision-making, what research or products are most needed, how scientists and managers can most effectively...

A first principle modeling approach has been applied to available data describing the elution of semiochemicals from pheromone dispensers. These data included field data for 27 products developed by several manufacturers, including homemade devices, as well as environmental chamber data collected on three semiochemical products. The goal of this effort was to understand the underlying mechanisms controlling the elution process and to provide guidance to forest managers responsible for positioning these devices to avert insect infestation of valuable timberlands in the U.S.

Insect semiochemical dispensers are commonly deployed under variable environmental conditions over a specified period. Predictions of their longevity are hampered by a lack of methods to accurately monitor and predict how primary variables affect semiochemical release rate. A system was constructed to precisely determine semiochemical release rates under environmentally-controlled conditions. Three dissimilar types of solid matrix, passive emission semiochemical dispensers (P339 Sirex, Beetleblock-MCH, W230 terpinolene) were selected to verify the system capabilities. The rate of mass loss...

Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and boreal forested landscapes using a suite of landscape-scale fire models from around the world. Three major simulation comparisons have been completed thus far, each incorporating five models and examining several different...

A quantitative measure of wildfire risk across a landscape - expected net change in value of resources and assets exposed to wildfire - was established nearly a decade ago. Assessments made using that measure have been completed at spatial extents ranging from an individual county to the continental United States. The science of wildfire risk assessment and management continues to build on the basic framework to develop new analysis techniques that address specific fire management problems. This paper reviews central concepts of the basic risk assessment framework and describes several...

The idea that more wildfires should be allowed to burn for resource benefit is widespread in federal fire management in the United States and the research community is heavily invested in strategies, tools, data, and information to provide decision-making support for these fires. In the context of the very large wildfires that are now occurring with frequency, it is generally believed that previous fires will confer benefit when large fires threaten. This paper examines whether federal fire management policies and practices in the United States are evolving to support more extensive use of...