Treesearch

Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices,...

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used "two axes" scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16...

Non-native organisms have invaded novel ecosystems for centuries, yet we have only a limited understanding of why their impacts vary widely from minor to severe. Predicting the impact of non-established or newly detected species could help focus biosecurity measures on species with the highest potential to cause widespread damage. However, predictive models require an understanding of potential drivers of impact and the appropriate level at which these drivers should be evaluated. Here, we used non-native, specialist herbivorous insects of forest ecosystems to test which factors drive...

In this study we investigated the behaviour of aggregate prediction errors in a forest inventory augmented with multispectral Airborne Laser Scanning and airborne imagery. We compared an Area-Based Approach (ABA), Edge-tree corrected ABA (EABA) and Individual Tree Detection (ITD). The study used 109 large 30 × 30 m sample plots, which were divided into four 15×15 m subplots. Four different levels of aggregation were examined: all four subplots (quartet), two diagonal subplots (diagonal), two edge-adjacent subplots (adjacent) and subplots without aggregation. We noted that the errors at...

Wildland fires (WLF) have become more frequent, larger, and severe with greater impacts to society and ecosystems and dramatic increases in firefighting costs. Forests throughout the range of ponderosa pine in Oregon and Washington are jeopardized by the interaction of anomalously dense forest structure, a warming and drying climate, and an expanding human population. These forests evolved with frequent interacting disturbances including low-severity surface fires, droughts, and biological disturbance agents (BDAs). Chronic low-severity disturbances were, and still are, critical to...

Soil moisture is a key control on runoff generation and biogeochemical processes on hillslopes. Precipitation events can evoke different soil moisture responses with depth through the soil profile, and responses can differ among landscape positions along a hillslope. We sought to elucidate the nature of these responses by estimating changes in water content, response time between peak precipitation and peak soil moisture, and wetting front velocities for 43 storms at 45 locations on three adjacent hillslopes within a headwater catchment of the southern Appalachian Mountains (NC, USA). We...

“Megafires” are of scientific interest and concern for fire management, public safety planning, and smoke-related public health management. There is a need to predict them on time scales from days to decades. Understanding is limited, however, of the role of daily weather in determining their extreme size. This study examines differences in the daily weather during these and other smaller fires, and in the two sets of fires’ responses to daily weather and antecedent atmospheric dryness. Twenty fires of unusual size (over 36 400 ha), were each paired with a nearby large fire (10 100–30 300...

A two‐phase Bayesian model is presented for updating risk assessments for locations susceptible to infection by exotic pathogens. Human transportation from previously infected regions to uninfected regions is the main dispersal mechanism. Information embedded in patterns within the transportation flow are exploited in the update process. We explore the sensitivity of the model's outputs to changes in inputs. A sample application of the model to sudden oak death, using fictitious infection data, is performed.

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019– 2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades....

International agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) have committed to conserve, and sustainably and equitably use, biodiversity. The CBD is a vital instrument for global conservation because it guides 195 countries and the European Union in setting priorities and allocating resources, and requires regular reporting on progress. However, the CBD and similar policy agreements have often neglected genetic diversity.This is a critical gap because genetic diversity underlies adaptation to environmental change and ecosystem resilience. Here we aim to inform future...