Old growth forests expected to expand

Photo Credit

USDA Forest Service

Landscape view of mature forest in the Pisgah National Forest from Grandfather Mountain, North Carolina.

Mature and old growth forests offer a wide variety of ecological services, recreational opportunities, and cultural value. However, climate change, wildfires, and tree removals may reduce the future extent of mature and old growth forests.

SRS scientists used the Forest Dynamics Model to project the area of mature and old-growth forests on federal lands and to assess climate threats to these forests under varying climate futures.

Projections indicated an increase in old growth forest area, with 19-27% more old growth forest expected by 2070 than 2020, depending on the scenario. Old growth is expected to increase in the Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast, and North regions, but remain relatively steady in the South. Mature forest area is projected to increase and then decline, resulting in a 2070 projection relatively similar to 2020. Increased wildfires and tree removals are projected for old growth forests under all scenarios, though they are expected to continue affecting only a small portion of forests annually.

Ensuring forests are resilient to disturbances could help sustain older forests now and in the future.