The role of short-term weather conditions in temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Abstract

In this paper we investigate spatial-temporal associations of fire weather danger and fire regime features from 1979 to 2013. We analyze monthly time series of fire activity (number of fires and burned area) and fire weather danger rating indices (Fire Weather Index, Burning Index and Forest Fire Danger Index) at two spatial scales: (i) regionally, splitting the Spanish mainland into Northwest, Hinterland and Mediterranean regions; and (ii) locally, using the EMCWF grid. All analyses are based on decomposing time series to retrieve differential indicators of seasonal cycles, temporal evolution and anomalies. At regional scale we apply lagged cross-correlation analysis (4 lags or months before fire) to explore seasonal associations; and trend detection tests on the temporal evolution component. At the local scale, we calculate Pearson correlation coefficients between each individual index and the 18 possible fire-activity subsets according to fire size (all sizes,>1 ha and>100 ha) and source of ignition (natural, unintended and arson); this analysis is applied to both cycles, temporal and anomalies series.

Citation

Jimenez-Ruano, Adrian; Mimbrero, Marcos Rodrigues; Jolly, W. Matt; de la Riva Fernandez, Juan. 2019. The role of short-term weather conditions in temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain. Journal of Environmental Management. 241: 575-586.