Forest Management to Save the Moose in Minnesota

Phase 1: Workshop

During a 2023 workshop, moose experts and northeast Minnesota forest managers identified key large- and small-scale moose habitat features. Workshop attendees discussed forestry management techniques that could be used to improve these habitat features in large enough areas to make a difference for moose.

Phase 2: Computer Modeling

The information from the workshop is being used to model the effects of different forest management practices under multiple climate change scenarios using LANDIS (the Landscape Disturbance and Succession model). Results from LANDIS are being compared with moose and deer habitat sustainability maps to understand where the moose and deer could live and forage in the same areas.

Managers can use this information to strategically identify areas that are the most suitable for moose foraging and cover habitat under both current and future forest conditions.

Modeling details

The scientists used another simulation model, LANDIS-II, to estimate forest changes and disturbances by wind, fire, insects and “business as usual” timber harvesting. The disturbance patterns were based on recent history. The scientists also used multiple climate projections (current conditions, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on forest conditions.

Simulations were run for 90 years, representing 2010 through 2100. At 10-year intervals, projected tree species distribution and abundance were used to identify 25 native plant communities in northeastern MN. These were then collapsed into 11 community types for analysis.

Phase 3: Applying the Modeling Results

Scientists are analyzing 10 years of location data from moose wearing radio collars to determine how moose use and move between the forested community types identified in Phase 2. This will include trying to understand how moose use space and select habitat locations in response to short-term weather conditions. A better understanding of moose adaptive behavior to cope with changing weather conditions will help scientists anticipate how moose behavior may change in the future in response to changing climate conditions.

The research team is also designing adaptive forest management scenarios by working with land managers and simulating changing forests using LANDIS. Finally, the scientists intend to determine future habitat availability for moose under different climate and forest management scenarios. Part of this process will include developing maps of suitable habitat for both moose and deer.