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Understory

Defoliator Modeling: Tracking Outbreaks Through Time

Abstract

Outbreaks of defoliator insects (insects that feed on the needles and leaves of plants) play a major role in shaping Pacific coastal temperate rainforests. This fact sheet outlines how researchers are using historical data and an ensemble machine learning model to better understand the factors influencing outbreaks of two major defoliator species in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, and how climate change may be changing those factors. 

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Download (PDF 514KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/pnw-defoliator_modeling_fact_sheet_-_update_2.pdf
Last updated December 17, 2025