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Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center

The Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC) is administered by the Pacific Northwest Research Station, and it covers the western half of the United States. WWETAC collaborates with the Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and the Pacific Southwest Research Station, Regions 1-6 and 10, as well as with universities and other partners across the West.

WWETAC Overview banner.

Overview

Ecosystems of the Western United States face a variety of threats, including drought, insect and disease outbreaks, invasive species, and uncharacteristically large and severe wildfires.  

At the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC), we work with our partners in research and land management to: 

A map of the western U.S. with the title "Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center Coverage Area" with a small black star over Olympia, WA marking the WWETAC headquarters
  • Monitor and assess threats to western lands
  • Synthesize the latest understanding of the causes and implications of environmental threats
  • Develop novel research and decision-support tools to help agencies, communities, and managers reduce negative effects and sustain productive ecosystems

Founded in 2005 along with the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, WWETAC is a unit of the USDA Forest Service. WWETAC serves all seven Forest Service regions (1-6 and 10) in the Western United States.

Our activities are organized into focus areas: 

Mission and Objectives 

WWETAC’s mission is to generate and integrate knowledge to provide credible prediction, early detection, and quantitative assessment of environmental threats to forests and rangelands in the Western United States. Our objectives are to:

  • Assess risks, uncertainties, and potential effects of environmental stresses on western ecological conditions and socioeconomic values
  • Evaluate the effects and consequences of multiple, interacting stressors on western forest and rangeland health
  • Provide science-based decision-support tools for policy formulation and land management in the Western United States
  • Provide land managers with credible predictions of potential severe disturbances in the West with sufficient warning to take preventive actions

an image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Quaking Aspen and Fire".

Quaking Aspen and Fire: Aspens are one of the most widely distributed tree species in north America and have a reputation for slowing wildfire. This fact sheet summarizes a recent study that examined the spatial effects of aspens on wildfire in the southern Rockies in order to better understand whether this reputation is earned and discusses both the opportunities and uncertainties these findings present for managers.

 

 

 

 

An image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Bark Beetles in Western Forests

Bark Beetle Associations in Western Forests: Many native species of bark beetles affect trees across the Western United States. Most of the time, bark beetle populations remain small and only target weakened or damaged trees, but when conditions are favorable, beetle populations erupt. This fact sheet summarizes a study examining the spatial and temporal patterns of nine specific bark beetle/host tree interactions in order to better understand how specific associations behave.

 

 

 

 

An image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Mapping Climate Risk to Cultural Resources in the Southwest"

Mapping Climate Risk to Cultural Resources in the Southwest: The many cultural resources in the U.S. Southwest represent the tangible and intangible heritage of human societies. Yet cultural resources are often underrepresented in climate adaptation planning. A new tool developed through a partnership between the USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Forest Service Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center is helping to fill this gap. This fact sheet presents an introduction and overview to the Cultural Resources Exposure Assessment Toolbox Experience (CREATE), a geospatial decision-support tool designed to assess the climate exposure of cultural resources across national forests in Arizona and New Mexico.

 

 

Pre-fire prescribed burning, active wildfire, post-fire charred trees

Wildfire Risk and Fuel Management

Wildfire is a natural process in Western U.S. forests and rangelands. However, high-severity wildfire is a major threat to western ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. High-severity wildfires increase the likelihood of other ecological impacts, including flooding, erosion, and reduction in water quality, as well as loss of key wildlife habitat, recreation resources, and other ecological and economic values.  

WWETAC conducts wildfire modeling and prioritizes research guiding pre-fire planning and post-fire management to maintain healthy and product forests and rangelands. Researchers are gathering information on wildfire behavior, drivers of megafires, and historical fire regimes on western landscapes. This information is then used to determine how management may need to adapt to changing conditions. 

Maximum exposure potential (based on simulations) illustrates the relative magnitude of maximum building exposure that could result from an ignition at the given location. Exposure values binned in quantiles so the “Very Low” category accounts for pixels

Evaluation of plausible future community wildfire disasters in western Oregon and Washington: This project used simulated wildfire perimeters to measure plausible community wildfire exposure and found that nearly 50 percent of western Oregon and Washington communities are vulnerable to future disasters.

 

Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

 

Field crews are collecting thousands of samples like the one pictured to reconstruct tree establishment dates and the exact year of past fires.

Re-evaluating historical fire regimes in west-side forests of the Pacific Northwest: This project is developing quantitative knowledge about west-side fire history to inform managers and policy makers on adaptation to future changes in fire activity and climate.

 

Collaborative Postfire Research and Monitoring: This postfire research and monitoring collaboration facilitates shared stewardship by increasing interagency awareness of efforts by various state and federal natural resources agencies to assess and learn from the September 2020 fires in Oregon.

SoCal EcoServe map.

SoCal EcoServe: The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) allows users to map, quantify, and apply monetary value to ecological benefits derived from the chaparral ecosystems of the Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres, and San Bernardino National Forests of southern California.

 

MC2: The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It is often used to study the long-term response of vegetation to climate change far into the future at regional and global scales, and is used to craft management plans for multiple forests in the West.

 

FSim: FSim is a high-resolution wildfire simulation model that allowing WWETAC researchers to examine how future fire regimes might change with the impacts of climate change by simulate fire behavior and spread.

 

ArcFuels: WWETAC scientists developed ArcFuels, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning. The application uses a toolbar in ArcMap that interfaces with stand-to-landscape-level forest growth simulations (i.e., Forest Vegetation Simulator) and a fire behavior model (i.e., FlamMap) to aid fuel treatment planning, wildfire behavior modeling, and wildfire risk assessments.

an image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Quaking Aspen and Fire".

Quaking Aspen and Fire: Aspens are one of the most widely distributed tree species in north America and have a reputation for slowing wildfire. This fact sheet summarizes a recent study that examined the spatial effects of aspens on wildfire in the southern Rockies in order to better understand whether this reputation is earned and discusses both the opportunities and uncertainties these findings present for managers.

 

 

 

 

The first page of a fact sheet, with a dark green header containing the USDA logo and Forest Service Shield, two pictures of postfire forests, a map of the study area covered in the paper, and text

Measuring Long-Term Seedling Survival: Wildfires are a part of the Western landscape, but monitoring and management activities are still important following a fire. This fact sheet offers a summary of a project examining long-term conifer recovery in postburn areas of Northern California.

 

 

 

 

 

The first page of a fact sheet with a green header banner with the USDA logo and Forest Service shield, a couple paragraphs of text, two pictures of postfire planting, and a map of the study area

Postfire Planting in Colorado: Forests naturally go through cycles of disturbance and regrowth, but sometimes these disturbances are so severe that a forest struggles to recover on its own. In other instances, management priorities may call for an area to be reforested more quickly than would occur naturally. In either case, land managers may choose to replant an area themselves. This fact sheet provides a summary of a study examining what conditions affect the success of conifer seedlings planted after fires in Colorado.
 

 

 

The first page of a fact sheet, with a green header showing the USDA logo and forest service shield, with two paragraphs of text, a picture of a tree, and a diagram at the bottom of the page

Evaluating Spruce-Fir Resilience: Changing conditions, especially growing wildfire extent and frequency, may impact forests throughout the Western U.S. This fact sheet offers a summary of a study examining potential future changes in subalpine spruce-fir ecosystems throughout the Western U.S.
 

 

 

 

 

FSim Fact Sheet

The Future of Fires with FSim: Climate change will bring hotter and drier conditions and longer fire seasons. Understanding how fire regimes may change in the future is important for present-day management decisions. Learn how WWETAC researchers are using FSim to explore how future fire regimes might be impacted by climate change.

 

 

 

 

 

The first page of the Feed the Fire fact sheet

Feeding the Fire: Invasive Grass and Fire Spread Modeling: While forests are relatively resistant to non-native grass invasion, patches within forests with open canopies or sparse tree cover can be affected. This invasion may lead to changes in fire behavior on the landscape. Learn more about how researchers used a simulations to examine how non-native grass invasion might alter fire behavior in this fact sheet.

 

 

 

Selected WWETAC Wildfire Publications

Publications

Effective beginning 5/30/2025

This website, and all linked websites under the control of the agency, is under review and content may change.

WWETAC Climate Change: wildfire, flood, drought, invasives

Climate Change 

Climate change is a growing threat to western ecosystems and society. Climate change is expected to be a "threat multiplier" in that it is likely to exacerbate many existing threats to western forests and rangelands, including drought, wildfire, insect outbreaks, and invasive plants.

One of WWETAC's greatest challenges and highest priorities is translating projected climatic conditions into potential effects on western ecosystems, natural resource availability, and the societies dependent on them.

WWETAC staff have been systematically reviewing the environmental and socioeconomic conditions in Western states to understand how they might be negatively impacted by potential climatic changes. These vulnerability assessments can be comprehensive or resource specific and include adaptation strategies and tactics for land managers and community planners to effectively prepare for future conditions.

Adaptation Partners map
Photo Credit
adaptationpartners.org

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.

Pacific Southwest Region

Intermountain Region

Pacific Northwest Region

Northern Region

Southwestern Region

To view more climate change vulnerability assessments, see Adaptation Partners’ external website or the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Across the Nation storymap. 

Flows of carbon from the atmosphere to the forest and back. Carbon is stored mostly in live and dead wood as forests grow. From Ryan et al. (2010).

Carbon model assessments and improvements: The purpose of this project is to assist managers and policymakers in selecting and running projection models to assess the impact of alternative management approaches on ecosystem and harvested wood products carbon stocks and emissions. 

 

Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

 

Visual representation of assisted population migration: Moving seedlings of a plant species between different populations within the species range to increase their chances of survival in a changing climate. Graphic adapted from USDA Northwest Climate Hub.

Experimental Network for Assisted Migration and Establishment Silviculture (ENAMES): In the face of a changing climate, historic forest ecosystems may not do as well as they once did in specific habitats, especially when they are regenerating after disturbances. This ongoing project seeks to evaluate novel reforestation practices to ensure that thriving forests persist into the future.

 

 

 

Four maps of the United States showing PhenoMap outputs for 2005, 2011, 2013, and 2015, with wide variability between years.

PhenoMap: PhenoMap shows the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States, providing a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology using satellite imagery updated weekly.  

 

MC2: The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It is often used to study the long-term response of vegetation to climate change far into the future at regional and global scales, and is used to craft management plans for multiple forests in the West.

 

TACCIMO: The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analyses related to climate and climate effects. It stores climate research and land management applications and is continually updated to be the best source of Forest Service data on climate impacts and more.

 

Screenshot of the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Dashboard.

WaSSI: The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model is a tool that can be used to simulate the effects of climate, land use, land cover, and water use on water availability. The model uses climate outputs from 16 general circulation models (GCMs) under high and low warming scenarios and associated vegetation dynamics simulated with the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model as inputs. The interactive dashboard allows you to explore the water yield projections from 2008 through 2099 for HUC8 subbasins.

A group of people standing on a hill

Putting words to action in the Oregon Coast Region: The Oregon coast region is now better prepared for the future thanks to an innovative working group of scientists and land managers called the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership. This collaboration brought together branches of the USDA Forest Service, along with external partners, to compile the best available science to assess the vulnerability of federal forests and surrounding lands under future conditions and develop adaptation options.

 

An image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Mapping Climate Risk to Cultural Resources in the Southwest"

Mapping Climate Risk to Cultural Resources in the Southwest: The many cultural resources in the U.S. Southwest represent the tangible and intangible heritage of human societies. Yet cultural resources are often underrepresented in climate adaptation planning. A new tool developed through a partnership between the USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Forest Service Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center is helping to fill this gap. This fact sheet presents an introduction and overview to the Cultural Resources Exposure Assessment Toolbox Experience (CREATE), a geospatial decision-support tool designed to assess the climate exposure of cultural resources across national forests in Arizona and New Mexico.

 

 

An image of the first page of a factsheet outlining the MC2 dynamic global vegitation model

MC2: Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

The MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulates ecosystem processes and their response to climate change. It has been used in a wide range of climate model and assessment applications, from fire severity to the economics of timber harvest. This fact sheet offers a brief summary of the model itself along with a sample of the range of work MC2 has been used in.  


 

 

 

An image of the first page of a factsheet about climate vulnerability assessments

WWETAC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments

A climate change vulnerability assessment, or CCVA, is a report that synthesizes and evaluates a wide range of scientific information, including model projections and scientific papers, on the effects climate change might have on a specific area. This fact sheet summarizes the main parts and uses of a CCVA, and highlights the role WWETAC plays in producing many of the assessments for the Western U.S. It also includes an up-to-date list of WWETAC's available assessment.   

 


 

Selected WWETAC Climate Change Publications

Publications

Three pictures of invasive plants in the Western U.S. A tree covered in climbing english ivy. A bunch of flowering reed canary grass. A scotch broom bush covered in small yellow flowers

Invasive Species

Plants and animals that move or are introduced to a new location can threaten ecosystems throughout the western United States. At times, these introductions pose no threat, but sometimes non-native species spread and multiply in their new habitats, invading and displacing native species and altering ecosystem structure and function. Invasive species can also reduce the viability of threatened or endangered native species, reduce water availability to native species, change nutrient dynamics and balance, and limit the ability of forests to sequester carbon. These effects can have negative repercussions on forest and rangeland productivity, recreation resources, and overall ecosystem integrity. WWETAC prioritizes research at the forefront of invasive species outbreaks and develops information and tools to help managers effectively respond to these novel threats. 

The first page of the Feed the Fire fact sheet

Feeding the Fire: Invasive Grass and Fire Spread Modeling: While forests are relatively resistant to non-native grass invasion, patches within forests with open canopies or sparse tree cover can be affected. This invasion may lead to changes in fire behavior on the landscape. Learn more about how researchers used a simulations to examine how non-native grass invasion might alter fire behavior in this fact sheet.

 

 

 

Workers applying herbicide to a rode edge un an open douglas fir forest

Improving Restoration Outcomes and Forest Resilience: Timber harvests and thinning may inadvertently create conditions that are beneficial for invasive plants. Treating invasive plants before other forest management activities could be an effective method for minimizing their spread. This project seeks to 1) determine if applying herbicides before harvest or thinning and re-seeding with desired species will limit postharvest invasion, and 2) explore the role that disturbance intensity and roadsides play in invasive plant establishment.

 

 

A field of ventenata grass with a close up of stems

Risk assessment tool for invasive plant spread in the northern Rocky Mountains: The Forest Service Northern Region is working with the Spatial Analysis Lab at the University of Montana to develop a decision-support tool that combines invasion ecology, plant and population biology, and resource management. This tool will offer a standard method for land managers to assess the risk of invasive plant species introduction and spread through fuels treatment and other land management activities.

Interactive map displaying different seed zones across the United States

Seed Zone Mapper: The Seed Zone WebMap allows users to acquire data on seed zones that is useful in gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development.

 

 

Selected WWETAC Invasive Species Publications

Three images of forest insect disease impacts. A ghostly, partially defoliated conifer forest. A birch leaf with amber spots from birch leaf miners. A forest professional in a hazard suit spraying a tree as a bark beetle treatment

Insects & Disease

Many insects and diseases are native to the western U.S. However, they can still cause considerable damage, especially when natural disturbance cycles are amplified by magnifying factors like drought. In these circumstances, they can cause widescale damage and loss to forest and rangelands.

Understanding the mechanisms behind native insect outbreaks and disease spread is important for managing these threats. WWETAC investigates native insects and pathogens that have reached uncharacteristic or harmful levels to help land managers determine the best way to respond. 

The first page of the Rapid Ohia Death fact sheet

Rapid Ohia Death: Containing an Emerging Threat: A fungal disease is threatening one of the State of Hawaii's most important tree species. This fact sheet summarizes the importance of the ohi'a tree, describes Rapid Ohi'a Death (ROD) and the ways it spreads, and highlights ongoing research into effective methods to slow the spread of ROD.

 

 

 

 

 

The first page of the Insect Outbreaks in the Northwest fact sheet

Insect Outbreaks in the Northwest: Northwest forests are home to many species of native insects that live in and feed on trees. These insects thin old, stressed, or sick trees and diversify forest structure. Under certain conditions, forest insects can also cause significant tree mortality when their populations expand in an outbreak. This fact sheet summarizes the conditions that effect insect outbreaks, highlights two prominent species, and presents some general considerations for managing insect outbreaks. 

This sheet was produced as a partnership between the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center and the USDA Northwest Climate Hub.

 

 

The front page of the forest health monitoring data fact sheet

Forest Health Data: The Forest Service has three primary mechanisms for gathering data about forest conditions and health at the landscape scale: Aerial detection surveys, plot-based inventories, and satellite remote sensing analysis. This fact sheet summarizes these three data sources, and introduces an ongoing project to integrate multiple data sources in order to take advantage of their unique strengths.

 

 

 

 

An image of the first page of a fact sheet titled "Bark Beetles in Western Forests

Bark Beetle Associations in Western Forests: Many native species of bark beetles affect trees across the Western United States. Most of the time, bark beetle populations remain small and only target weakened or damaged trees, but when conditions are favorable, beetle populations erupt. This fact sheet summarizes a study examining the spatial and temporal patterns of nine specific bark beetle/host tree interactions in order to better understand how specific associations behave.

 

 

 

First page of a fact sheet about remote sensing with a green header containing the USDA logo and Forest Service shield, two pictures of forest inventory data collection, and text

Remote Sensing for Insect and Disease Assessment
Remote sensing is a rapidly growing field, with significant potential benefits for forest disturbance assessment. This fact sheet gives a brief summary of remote sensing uses and techniques for assessing forest insects and disease and provides additional resources to learn more.
 

 

 

 

An image of the first page of a factsheet about defoliator insect damage

Defoliator Modeling: Tracking Outbreaks Through Time

Outbreaks of defoliator insects (insects that feed on the needles and leaves of plants) play a major role in shaping Pacific coastal temperate rainforests. This fact sheet outlines how researchers are using historical data and an ensemble machine learning model to better understand the factors influencing outbreaks of two major defoliator species in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, and how climate change may be changing those factors.  

 

 

A forested slope with mixed mountain pine beetle damage

Plots, Planes, and Pixels: This project is building a modeling framework for integrating forest inventory data, aerial surveys, and satellite remote sensing information to provide reliable, timely, and detailed estimates of forest mortality events and associated ecological impacts.

 

a hillside of Douglas-fir with scattered, rust-colored dead trees

Insect interactions in Douglas-fir forests in the Northern Rockies: Disturbances, such as bark beetles, drought, and wildfire, are reshaping Douglas-fir forests throughout the Western United States. This series of projects helps to better understand the effects of these disturbances and to inform management actions that may be used to reduce damages to forests. Using multiple targeted case studies that were co-produced with forest managers, they investigate how prior disturbances (drought, fire) and stand conditions influence the likelihood of insect outbreaks in Douglas-fir forests.

 

Northwest Forest Threat Maps: NW Threat Maps is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming and shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats. 

 

Selected WWETAC Insect & Disease Publications

Three images. A hillside of mixed live and dead trees, a lone yellowing oak tree in a field of dead grass, a close-up picture of a smoldering stump

Drought in the West

Drought is a natural part of western lands. Extreme or prolonged drought can have significant effects on forests and grasslands. Drought interacts with other disturbances in complex ways like changing fire behavior, altering forest insect outbreak patterns, or opening opportunities for invasive species to spread.  

WWETAC investigates how drought affects western forests and grasslands, provides tools to assist with management, and provides timely drought status updates to help land managers prepare for drought effects.

These regular drought status updates are produced using the most recent data and cover a seasonal range of outlooks, including current conditions, seasonal drought outlooks, and severe fire potential. It is broken down by Forest Service region.

Maps of the western U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii showing drought conditions as of June 9th, 2026.

Drought Status Update - June 2026

This drought status update is produced using the most recent data and cover a seasonal range of outlooks, including current conditions, seasonal drought outlooks, and severe fire potential. It is broken down by Forest Service region. The update covers conditions for June 2026, and projections through August, 2026.

A map of the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico showing drought status as of March 31, 2026.

Drought Status Update - April 2026

This drought status update for the United States summarizes current drought conditions, seasonal drought outlook, and severe fire potential by Forest Service region. This update covers conditions for April 2026 through June 2026.


 

July 17 2025 Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update - July 2025

This update covers conditions for July 2025 and projections through September 2025.

 

  

A map of the western U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii showing drought conditions as of April 16, 2025

Drought Status Update - April 2025

This update covers conditions for April 2025, and projections through July 2025.

 

  

 

 

A dry plane with dead bushes, two small figures in cowboy hats in the midground, and a blue sky

Drought Overview

This fact sheet offers a general overview of the various types of drought, their effects, and some of the factors that contribute to drought in the West. It offers a good starting point for those who are less familiar with drought and drought effects, or want to learn more about how drought is monitored in the U.S. 

Two skiers on a thin strip of snow, surrounded by bare, snowless hillside.

Snow Drought

Snow droughts occurs when snowpack is abnormally low, relative to the time of year and location. This type of drought can have significant economic and ecological effects. This fact sheet, part of the Drought in the West fact sheet series, explains the two types of snow drought, gives more details about their effects, and offers additional resources. 

 


 

Elk standing in a river during a wildfire

Drought Interaction - Wildfire

This fact sheet summarizes the interactions between drought and wildfire on western U.S. forests and rangelands, including drying fuels, reducing environmental moisture, and stressing water infrastructure.

 

A hemlock sawfly larvae on an evergreen branch

Drought Interaction - Insects

This fact sheet offers a summary of the interaction between drought and forest insects in the western U.S.


 

A lone, blooming tamarisk bush with pale pink flowers and dark green foliage

Drought Interaction - Invasive Species

This fact sheet provides a summary of the interaction between drought and invasive plants on forest and rangeland health in the western U.S. It describes invasive species effects overall and highlights a few particularly noteworthy species.

 

Map of the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico showing drought conditions as of April 15, 2025

Drought Maps and Outlooks Guide

 This fact sheet gives an introduction to some of the major sources of drought information and other data that is related to drought and helps break down how they are presented. It covers the U.S. Drought Monitor weekly conditions map, the NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook map, various sources of historical data, snowpack data, and significant fire potential outlooks.  

Drought affects resources and services provided by national forests and grasslands across the United States. Managing drought is important to maintain the health of vital ecosystems and preserve economic and natural resources, but the specific actions used to manage drought can vary depending on the situation and location. A 2019 report, supported by WWETAC scientists, synthesized best practices for managing drought by region. The following fact sheets summarize those findings for the Western and Eastern United States for land managers.

A hillside of healthy conifer trees with piles of dead branches and underbrush on the ground.

Managing Drought in the Western United States

Drought affects resources and services provided by national forests and grasslands in the Western United States. This fact sheet summarizes potential management actions to reduce negative effects of drought on major resource areas, developed through science-management workshops. It also provides additional resources to learn more about drought and drought management.

 

Two wildland firefighters walking next to a smoldering prescribed burn.

Managing Drought in the Eastern United States

Drought affects resources and services provided by national forests and grasslands in the Eastern United States. This fact sheet summarizes potential management actions to reduce negative effects of drought on major resource areas, developed through science-management workshops. It also provides additional resources to learn more about drought and drought management.

 

Selected WWETAC Drought Publications

Tools

ArcFuels: WWETAC scientists developed ArcFuels, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning. The application uses a toolbar in ArcMap that interfaces with stand-to-landscape-level forest growth simulations (i.e., Forest Vegetation Simulator) and a fire behavior model (i.e., FlamMap) to aid fuel treatment planning, wildfire behavior modeling, and wildfire risk assessments. 

Adaptation Partners map
Photo Credit
adaptationpartners.org

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.

Adaptation Partners and Adaptation Library: Adaptation Partners is a collaborative climate vulnerability research group who work with a diversity of organizations and stakeholders to develop multi-resource assessments. Information in the Adaptation Library is derived from climate change vulnerability assessments conducted by Adaptation Partners. Adaptation options are intended to inform sustainable management of natural resources, reduce the negative effects of climate change, transition ecosystems to a warmer climate, and help integrate climate change in natural resource management, planning, and business operations of federal land management agencies. These climate change adaptation actions are organized by categories of 1) sensitivity to a particular climate change effect, 2) corresponding strategies to mitigate the impacts of this climate change effect, and 3) specific tactical actions that can take place as an implementation of that particular strategy.

Forest Plan Database (FP_DECK): The Forest Plan Database Exchange of Current Knowledge (FP_DECK) is the only complete, searchable database of all Forest Service land and resource management plans. This allows anyone to conduct a search of individual forest plans or across multiple forest plans based on a topic of interest, such as management action, protected resource, or geographic location.

Interactive map displaying different seed zones across the United States

Seed Zone Mapper: A seed zone is an area where plant materials can be transferred with little risk of being poorly adapted to their new location. The Seed Zone WebMap provides users with the seed zone data necessary for successful gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development

MC2: WWETAC has supported the continued refinement and application of a model called MC2, which simulates global vegetation response to climate change. MC2 can be customized for a particular region using site-specific information and used to create projections of vegetation change under future climate scenarios. It can further predict vegetative interactions with wildfire and the resulting effects on carbon stocks and water runoff. MC2 simulations have been used in crafting management plans for multiple forests in the West and constitute an important tool for long-term planning. Contact: John Kim

Seasonal PhenoCam images of the Prairie Peninsula National Ecological Observation Network (NEON) site, Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas. These grass growth and senescence changes are captured by PhenoMap. Photos courtesy of the PhenoCam network.

PhenoMap: Phenomap uses satellite imagery that is updated weekly to show the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States. This provides a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service are also displayed. PhenoMap is useful in planning a variety of natural resource activities, such as livestock grazing, seed collection, fuels assessments, and wildlife management.

SoCal EcoServe map.

Socal EcoServe: The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) allows users to map, quantify, and apply monetary value to ecological benefits derived from the chaparral ecosystems of the Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres, and San Bernardino National Forests of southern California.

 

TACCIMO: The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analysis related to climate and climate effects. TACCIMO serves as an ongoing repository of climate research and land management application.

Screenshot of the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Dashboard.
Photo Credit
Duarte et al. 2024

WaSSI: Water supply is an important ecosystem service, one that is likely to change with future climatic conditions. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model is a tool that can be used to simulate the effects of climate, land use, land cover, and water use on water availability. We used climate outputs from 16 general circulation models (GCMs) under high and low warming scenarios and associated vegetation dynamics simulated with the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model as inputs. The interactive dashboard allows you to explore the water yield projections from 2008 through 2099 for HUC8 subbasins.

Key Personnel

Center Director

Staff

  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Robbie Andrus

    ORISE Western Environmental Threats Fellow
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/robert.andrus
  • Person
    John B. Kim, PhD

    John B. Kim, PhD

    Research Biological Scientist
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/john.kim
  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Brandon McWilliams

    ORISE - Science Communication Fellow
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/brandon.mcwilliams
  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Andrew Merschel

    ORISE Postdoctoral Scholar
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/andrew.merschel
  • Person
    David L. L. Peterson, PhD

    David L. Peterson, PhD

    Emeritus Scientist
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/wild
  • Person
    Holly R. Prendeville, PhD

    Holly R. Prendeville, PhD

    Coordinator
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/holly.prendeville
  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Analise Sala

    ORISE Climate Change Integration Fellow
  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Charlie Schrader-Patton

    Geospatial Analyst/Developer
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/charlie.schrader
  • Person
    USDA Forest Service Logo

    Thomas Timberlake

    Natural Resource Specialist
    https://research.fs.usda.gov/about/people/thomas.timberlake

Feature Stories

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