Treesearch

Relatively little research on environmental futures has been carried out in the United States. An exception is the long-running futures research that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been conducting since the 1970s. This paper reviews past and current efforts toward developing a capacity for environmental foresight within the EPA, and discusses some lessons for other agencies and institutions concerned with the future of the environment.

This paper describes a fundamental framework for anticipating and influencing the future that has been used to prepare professional futurists at the University of Houston for more than 35 years. The overview of the framework addresses how futures researchers organize information about changes in the world (e.g., by defining the domain, or scope, of the forecasting topic and identifying drivers of future change). Specific techniques to develop foresight, including environmental scanning and trend analysis, are discussed. The paper summarizes the three kinds of futures typically explored:...

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These forces are examined in terms of their possible, probable, and preferable future impacts on natural resources. The paper is presented in two stages. First, it identifies seven commonly cited categories of existing, emerging, and...

Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary. Scenarios can help address several of the currently recognized challenges of sustainability science.

Forests and forest ecosystems provide a critical array of benefits, from clean air and water to commercial products to open space. The forests and their ability to provide desired benefi ts constantly change in response to natural forces, human decisions, and human needs. The complexity and rate of change demand a rigorous evaluation of existing and emerging natural and anthropogenic forces, analysis of potential impacts of those forces, and consideration of how our response to them affects future forest sustainability. Nowhere is the apparent need for analysis of these challenges more...

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used in the Third and Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessments to recognize the influence of global forces on domestic resource conditions and trends. This paper reviews the challenges encountered, approaches taken...

Forests are important economic and ecological resources for both the Appalachian hardwood forest region and the country. Increased demand for woody biomass can be met, at least in part, by improved utilization of these resources. However, concerns exist about the impacts of increased intensity of woody biomass removal on the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Relatively little research has evaluated the impacts of forest biomass harvesting on site productivity, biodiversity, water quality, or other measures of ecosystem productivity, and new information about these and other related...

These proceedings report invited presentations and contributions to the 2012 biennial Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Symposium, which was hosted by the Research and Development branch of the U.S. Forest Service. As the only comprehensive and continuous census of the forests in the United States, FIA provides strategic information needed to evaluate sustainability of current forest management practices across all ownerships. Papers and abstracts included in the publication have been sorted into topic areas that match the sessions presented during the meeting. Symposium papers cover...

Environmental foresight is insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare wisely for a sustainable future. Successful environmental planning, management, and policy require the development and continual updating of foresight. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen Johnson has stated: "Failure to look beyond present conditions only ensures that emerging problems will be more diffi cult to address and that opportunities may be missed" (U.S. EPA 2005: 1). The soundness and acuity of our environmental...