Updating the Forest Service’s Most Important Tool for Confronting the Wildfire Crisis

A forested landscape near Ashland, Oregon. USDA Forest Service photo by Preston Keres.

Climate change, drought, and growing numbers of homes built in fire-prone wildland areas contributed to a fourfold increase in the number of structures destroyed by wildfire from 2014 to 2020.

To help the agency confront this problem, researchers at the USDA Forest Service developed a groundbreaking tool called the Fireshed Registry, an online dashboard that allows users to view and map data related to wildfire transmission; past, present, and future management; and past and predicted wildfires. Firesheds—typically about 250,000 acres in size—are areas of land where fires could potentially ignite and spread to communities. Fireshed maps provide a way to identify wildfire threats to communities, similar to how watersheds can be used to manage water resources.

These tools provide a common frame of reference for communication and coordination across agencies, and became the science foundation for the ambitious 10-year Wildfire Crisis Strategy that the Forest Service launched in 2022.

However, the analyses that are built into the fireshed work did not include climate change or explicitly consider other management priorities of national interest. In the coming decades, climate change is likely to significantly alter where and how often fires ignite and how they spread.

Researchers John Kim and Michelle Day, with Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain Research Stations, respectively, are working with colleagues to address this gap. The team will assess the effect of projected future climate on fire regimes and community exposure to wildfire.

“We are adding layers of information that will update the data in the Fireshed Registry,” Kim said. “The simulations that went into the registry used recent climate, and we are going to redo the whole thing using future climate. Basically what we are asking is, ‘If we simulate wildfire using future climate, what are the large-scale patterns that will change? Where are those changes and what is driving them?’”

In June 2022, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack issued a memorandum directing the Forest Service to update the Fireshed Registry to include wildfire risks to watersheds, habitat and ecological connectivity for important wildlife and at-risk species, and carbon storage, as well as risks to underserved and socially disadvantaged communities.

Kim and his team will also be assessing how risks to these ecosystem values, including vulnerable communities, conflict with or complement existing priorities, and how that information could be used to inform forest management to protect those values. Along with the updated climate data, this work will help to make a powerful decision support tool even more powerful.

Objectives

• Update current wildfire building exposure data in the Fireshed Registry to reflect current conditions using the 2023 FSim fire simulation outputs (representing 2020 conditions). 
• Assess the effect of projected future (midcentury) climate on fire regimes and fireshed building exposure. 
• Assess how the Secretary’s Memorandum 1077-004 Section 2a1 assessments (carbon stocks, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, water, and environmental justice) conflict or complement existing fireshed priorities as measured with both contemporary and future climate. 
• Inform national policy concerning forest and fuel management priorities including the Wildfire Crisis Strategy. 

Expected Products 

• All major simulation and analysis outputs will be published in the Forest Service research data archive. 
• A project report will describe all work conducted and results obtained. Results will be presented at nationally recognized scientific meetings. 
• One or more manuscripts describing the work will be submitted to a high-impact, peer-reviewed scientific journal. E

Expected Outcomes 

• New insights about wildfire exposure risk based on future climate. 
• The all-lands geography of the updated Fireshed Registry will make it a useful platform for shared stewardship under future climate. 
• Additional assessments (carbon stocks, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, water, and environmental justice) will be integrated into the scenario modeling platform that can then be used to examine alternative prioritization schemes.

Metrics of Success

Success can be measured by the Fireshed Registry being widely used as a tool to help prioritize investments in lands predicted to be problem areas in terms of wildfire spreading to developed areas. The updated simulation and analysis will increase the potential of this tool for wider application and integration with other assessments and models.

Keywords: Fireshed Registry, climate change, fire regimes, wildfire exposure